India's Economic Outlook 2015
Last moderated on: Tuesday, Aug 04, 2015.
Political Outlook: (ON REVIEW) India has a bi-cameral parliamentary system with Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is in the center. UI has been maintaining a "Stable" outlook for India Politics on the onset of single party majority - giving push to social and economic legislations to fix persistent state issues. Yet, it does not simplify the process of moving important legislations in the house, abandoning the expectations in dismal. India got an anemic opposition in the center, not by the numbers, yet wisdom, to push the government for moving important legislations. The Congress party is lacking cogent opposition leader in the house. Its byzantine pursuit would be challenging for the party to make progress in the near state elections. There are two important points, which were emphasized during the outlook analysis:
1.Politicizing the capital punishment of 1993 Mumbai Bombings convict - Yakub Memon.
2.Non-operational of the Indian Parliament.
Currency Outlook: (NEGATIVE) UNIDOW maintains a negative outlook on the national currency. Upcoming elections to the house of people and uncertainty related to the next government at the center will push the investment down in the country and eventually raising the demand for the US Dollar. Although, this outlook to be followed till first half of CY2014 and projections will be changed post elections results. There will be a positive outlook for the Indian currency if the BJP led government formed at the center.
Economic Outlook: (STABLE) In our recent economic evaluation, The UNIDOW has maintained a stable outlook on the overall economic prospect of the country. The challenge of overspending will be curbed and we're anticipating firm growth and minimal risk of large fiscal deficit to GDP ratio. However, with limited space for rate cut, RBI is unlikely to ease its policy rates in every meet this year due to persistent inflation and volatile industrial output and manufacturing prices threatening the inflation prospect. RBI is giving full attention to the inflation problem, which is undermining the fragile economic growth.
All figures are in per cent, unless otherwise mentioned.
1. *Percentage change in GDP Deflator from previous year.
2. **Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Industrial Workers.
3. ***All Commodities.
4. ^Mumbai three months offer rate.
5. ^^10 year government Bond.
Data Source: OECD, World Bank, Unidow Research & Analytic and IMF.
Ratings and Economic Outlook provided by Unidow Financial Intelligence.
Positive - This rating signifies that the outlook is and optimistic and favorable for the domestic as well as foreign investors.
Stable - This outlook tells us that the rating has been used on the basis of current unfavorable domestic and global situation and post-moderation with India's peer economies with mild negative factors.
On Review - Above two ratings are considered as positive. But "On Review" is somewhat a negative outlook. This rating signifies that Unidow is doubtful on the future outlook and consider it as risky/negative for the near-term.
Negative - This is an adverse rating for the country and can be use post critical review.
Risky - This is the last rating measure and Unidow has never used it in its economic outlook report so far. As the name tells, this too is an adverse rating and shows extremely unfavorable and risky outlook.
Sector's Growth of the Indian Economy
Indian GDP Over the past Decade
Indian GDP In Numbers For FY-2013
|Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing||16,44,834|
|Mining and Quarrying||2,18,910|
|Electricity, Gas & Water Supply||1,70,238|
|Trade, Hotel, Transport & Communication||24,09,965|
|Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Bus Service||16,17,397|
|Community, Social & Personal Services||13,52,314|
|Total GDP (in INR, Ten Million)||94,61,012|